I don’t know if it’s just my feed of X posts and research, but the chorus of analysts pushing back on the amount of cuts priced into the market was deafening this month.
CPI showed a 25 percent reduction in health insurance? Every employment report the last 13 months was revised upwards after the fact? $1,000,000,000 increase in the defect each quarter? Sure inflation is going away...
If the QRA is supportive for Treasuries, it would support the long end - 7 yr (TY) to 20 yr (US). However if the rate cut view pans out, it will be the short end to belly that benefits - 2 yr (TU) to 5 yr (FV). If one were to buy today and try to hold through the entire cycle, 5 yr would be the balanced way to play it.
I'm italian and when I think of Trump I can't believe that such a (fill with an insult you like) could become POTUS once again.
Then I remember Berlusconi and Renzi and Conte and 5stars and Lega and PD etc etc
Democracy is doomed
CPI showed a 25 percent reduction in health insurance? Every employment report the last 13 months was revised upwards after the fact? $1,000,000,000 increase in the defect each quarter? Sure inflation is going away...
Geo, based on your views on inflation and rate cutting coming, what duration US treasury bonds would you recommend buying right now?
If the QRA is supportive for Treasuries, it would support the long end - 7 yr (TY) to 20 yr (US). However if the rate cut view pans out, it will be the short end to belly that benefits - 2 yr (TU) to 5 yr (FV). If one were to buy today and try to hold through the entire cycle, 5 yr would be the balanced way to play it.
Thanks!