Hey, thanks for interesting article. Could you please say why do you skipped equities and crypto altogether? Do you assume recession and think that they will not perform well? Or is there any other reason?
I see 3 scenarios: 1. Economy stays hot (Fed tightens more) 2. Mild recession and lower inflation 3. Deep recession and lower inflation. Equites and crypto do well only in 2 but poorly in 1 and 3. Betting on lower yields does well in both 2 and 3 so it’s a higher probability trade.
I also mentioned in my last post about how I’m neutral crypto now and think it goes sideways for a while.
Hello Geo, cool stuff as always. i agree with ur forecast and i was already positioning myself accordingly but here is smth i dont know. how and where do we play the steepener bet?
Great article, Geo! I really enjoyed reading. I did 5/30 steepener several weeks ago, recently took it off since Dec contract is expiring. Is it a good time to put on with March 23 contract?
Yea it's been drifting sideways for a while but I think it's a good time to get back in, because one or two big downside eco data prints could trigger an acceleration of the steepening.
Great article. Very insightful. Would blue chip dividend paying stocks continue to be a safe play?
'In addition, the Bank of Canada surprised the market last month by hiking only 25 bp instead of 50 bp.'
you meant they hiked 50bps, instead of 75bps
Yes you're right! Thanks for pointing that out.
Hey, thanks for interesting article. Could you please say why do you skipped equities and crypto altogether? Do you assume recession and think that they will not perform well? Or is there any other reason?
I see 3 scenarios: 1. Economy stays hot (Fed tightens more) 2. Mild recession and lower inflation 3. Deep recession and lower inflation. Equites and crypto do well only in 2 but poorly in 1 and 3. Betting on lower yields does well in both 2 and 3 so it’s a higher probability trade.
I also mentioned in my last post about how I’m neutral crypto now and think it goes sideways for a while.
Hello Geo, cool stuff as always. i agree with ur forecast and i was already positioning myself accordingly but here is smth i dont know. how and where do we play the steepener bet?
You can play it on a brokerage platform like Interactive Brokers that offers CME Treasury futures
Great article, Geo! I really enjoyed reading. I did 5/30 steepener several weeks ago, recently took it off since Dec contract is expiring. Is it a good time to put on with March 23 contract?
Yea it's been drifting sideways for a while but I think it's a good time to get back in, because one or two big downside eco data prints could trigger an acceleration of the steepening.