By now you’ve probably seen the headlines - the Bank of Japan increased the cap for where the 10 year JGB yield can trade from 25 bp to 50 bp on Tuesday.
115 is a reasonable soft target for this year. I believe the Boj will deliver more hawkish developments and the Fed is a couple months from pivoting to a neutral stance. To manage risk I would use the 50 dma as a trailing stop or manage risk by partially covering shorts here and reselling next week. I have this trade on via options so that helps to limit my downside and gives me the opportunity to dynamically hedge the exposure.
Excellent work! You might enjoy my latest piece discussing macro for 2023 and my portfolio details.
https://finiche.substack.com/p/the-big-portfolio-refresh-202301
Cheers!
F.
How does a retail trader even look to take a position in a 5yr/30yr treasury trade? Do you just use some proxy ETFs?
Sorry I missed this. It's best done via futures on a platform such as Interactive Brokers
thx Mr Fidenza. getting the direction w some risk/pnl mgmt def makes sense. its early in 2023. i feel hope
what a call. is there a target or just keep a trailing stop loss?
115 is a reasonable soft target for this year. I believe the Boj will deliver more hawkish developments and the Fed is a couple months from pivoting to a neutral stance. To manage risk I would use the 50 dma as a trailing stop or manage risk by partially covering shorts here and reselling next week. I have this trade on via options so that helps to limit my downside and gives me the opportunity to dynamically hedge the exposure.