Trading Results from 2024

I’m writing from Hokkaido, the northernmost island of Japan, where we have received the most snow in 69 years. The snowboarding has been phenomenal, and the winter landscapes are gorgeous.

I’ve been taking a few weeks away from the newsletter to give myself a well-deserved break from the market. I tried my best to not trade, but ended up sneaking in a couple swing trades in ES futures and crypto. It’s interesting how the trades that you take when you’re trying to sit on your hands end up being better than the ones when you’re actively looking for opportunities in the market! I apologize for not writing about them in Fidenza Macro, but I’m sure there will be plenty more opportunities to come this year.

2024 was a solid year of trading, with the highlights being the crypto bull market and Trump election. I wish there was a way to sum up the results in one number, but halfway through the year I changed the methodology of tracking my pnl from percentages and basis points to to “R”, which stands for units of risk. “R” is a more robust and less forgiving way to measure trading performance, as the outcome of each trade is measured as a multiple of how much pnl was put at risk on that trade. For example, if I enter a trade with a predetermined stop and risk “R” (which could equate to anywhere from 0.5% to 5% of your trading capital, or a dollar number) and get stopped out, the trade result shows as “-1 R”. If I take profit and make 3x what I put at risk, the trade result shows as “3R”.

All of the trades I exited in 2024 are in the table at the end of this post - unedited and unfiltered. I risk a significant amount of personal capital into each trade, each of which is reported in real time to paid subscribers in the Substack chat.

45 out of 118 trades were winners - a 38% win rate. This was well below my career win rate of 44%, but it didn’t stop me from having a good year. This is just proof that win rate means very little in trading.

The following is a breakdown and summary of results by asset class:

Commodities

I returned 62.1% in price terms in H1 and returned 6.2R in H2. I took a lot of swings in gold and silver and missed a lot of them, but the handful of trades where the bat connected were big winners. I did well trading precious metals from the long side in Q1 to Q3, and then had mixed success trading from the short side in Q4. Short gold from 2747 to 2549 was the biggest win in R (6.0) terms, while the two biggest trades in percentage terms were not in precious metals, but in sugar (13.0%) and coffee futures (16.6%).

Crypto

Crypto was my best performing asset of the year, thanks to the bull market. I captured 146.6% in price terms in H1 and 7.2R in H2. The 146.6% includes the 85.8% I made holding BTC from October 2023 to April 2024. My trading delivered huge excess returns above just holding BTC, with much less downside volatility. I’ve definitely developed a good feel for trading BTC as a global macro asset after having traded it for three cycles!

Rates

My trading in rates was mixed in 2024, as I captured 29.5 bp in yield terms in H1 and -2.7 R in H2. My biggest missed opportunities of the year were in rates. I lament not catching the big drop in yields in early August, and the subsequent rebound in Q4. I had the right view both times (and even wrote about it in this newsletter), but was shaken out of the positions. The lessons I’ve learned are that the lead-lag relationships in the bond and SOFR market take longer to play out in the post-Covid trading environment, and this requires more patience and a looser risk management framework. One must be willing to hold positions through events such as CPI, NFP, and geopolitical shocks, because those are the times when the market aligns with fundamentals and when price discovery takes place. I believe Treasury yields are once again mispriced at current levels, but that’s a topic for another post.

FX

I lost 3.6% in price terms in H1 and made 7.0 R in H2. The bulk of my FX gains came from two USD/JPY trades and one trade in USD/CNH. My FX gains were nothing to write about. I missed a few trades like long USD in Q4, but there was always more interesting things happening in other asset classes when FX was moving.

Equities

I lost 0.5% in price terms in H1 and lose 7 R in H2. I attempted way too many longs in Russell 2000, and I should have just stuck with buying dips in S&P 500. The tactical equity trades I publish in this newsletter haven’t done great. I run a profitable swing trading strategy in S&P 500, and my single stock portfolio does pretty well, but neither of them are suitable for this newsletter (the ES trading is too short-term, and my theses for single stocks are not original ideas). Going forward I need to figure out how to deliver better value to my readers in the equity space.

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Here is the 2024 trade history in its entirety. Sorry for the crappy formatting…I don’t think Substack allows me to create a table as an object.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

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Disclaimer: The content of this blog is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or instruments. The blog is not a trade signaling service and the author strongly discourages readers from following his trades without experience and doing research on those markets. The author of this blog is not a registered investment advisor or financial planner. The information presented on this blog is based on personal research and experience, and should not be considered as personalized investment advice. Any investment or trading decisions you make based on the content of this blog are at your own risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry the risk of loss, and there is no guarantee that any trade or strategy discussed in this blog will be profitable or suitable for your specific situation. The author of this blog disclaims any and all liability relating to any actions taken or not taken based on the content of this blog. The author of this blog is not responsible for any losses, damages, or liabilities that may arise from the use or misuse of the information provided.