Thoughts on equities, crypto, and the American exodus trade

It has been a quiet several weeks, and I’ve been staying out of trouble by doing very little trading, other than holding on to the long gold futures position I put on a couple weeks ago.

There are currently three main drivers in global macro - US trade negotiations and tariffs, US growth and inflation (and by extension, its growth relative to the rest of the world), and US fiscal policy. On the fiscal side, Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill is moving through the Senate with Trump targeting a self-imposed July 4 deadline, and the likelihood of major changes is low. On trade, there are more downside risks than upside risks from here, but market sensitivity to tariff headlines has been diminishing. US growth and inflation have not been interesting due to the Fed being on hold, but we may be reaching an inflection point that may trigger a break out of recent ranges.

In this post I’ll go over my current views on equity indices, crypto, and the American exodus trade.