Positioning for the exodus from American assets

As promised in my post from last week, I’ll be discussing the global macro trades I have on to position for the exodus from American assets. What we are witnessing is not just a reallocation out of US stocks and bonds, but a reordering of the geopolitical and financial order from an American-led hegemony to a multipolar world order where several large economies with vastly different political and economic systems vie for power and influence. Like the dollar bear market of 2002-2008 or the Japanese yen bear market of 2012-2024, I expect this trend to play out over the course of years. I don’t expect these trades to move in a straight line, so I will be applying market timing and risk management tactics for the futures and FX positions while holding long term ETF allocations for others.

Over the weekend Trump threatened to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell, causing further damage to the credibility to the dollar’s reserve status. Trump has already been tearing down America’s institutions with impunity and defying the courts in the process, so the market sees Trump’s threat as something he could very well follow through on. My “American exodus” portfolio has performed well today, confirming that these positions are the right expression for my fundamental views on the market.